Is Social Commerce Expected to Grow?

Social commerce has long been positioned as a major growth opportunity, particularly for brands looking to engage younger audiences. TikTok, in particular, has become a cultural powerhouse, driving viral trends across skincare, fashion, and even wellness products like Celtic salt. While many brands have used TikTok to collaborate with influencers, the 2024 launch of TikTok Shop has transformed the platform into a full-fledged eCommerce channel—allowing consumers to discover and purchase products without ever leaving the app.

According to Channel X, social commerce is projected to generate £16B in brand revenue by 2028—up from £7.4B in 2024. The expected growth to be driven by YouTube, Instagram and TikTok Shop in particular through surveying a selection of retail brands but focusing on the latter, how much is the platform being used at the moment?

SimilarWeb data shows significant traffic growth following the 2024 launch of TikTok Shop, and a strong upward trend for TikTok Business since 2023. However, both have seen a notable drop-off since December 2024—suggesting the initial buzz may be tapering off. Interestingly, December—a peak sales month—saw lower traffic than September and October, despite the seasonal retail push. This suggests that initial brand enthusiasm may have peaked in autumn.

It will be interesting to discover how this continues but we would suspect that when we compare this to the prior peak months, the baseline of traffic is higher. It’s likely that heightened publicity around TikTok Shop last year led many brands to rapidly onboard and experiment, driven by a fear of missing out on early momentum. We can imagine that for some, they have developed a sustainable sales channel but for others it may have been dropped and the focus may shift to business as usual and priority returns to other sales channels.

TikTok Shop and broader social commerce channels are poised for long-term growth—but it’s crucial to understand how they complement your wider channel mix. Clearly defining the role of social commerce will help ensure it supports, rather than distracts from, your core business objectives. If you're exploring how TikTok Shop or social commerce could fit into your digital strategy, we’re here to help you build a plan that’s sustainable, scalable, and integrated.